Welcome To Zelo Street!

This is a blog of liberal stance and independent mind

Sunday 2 November 2014

Christopher Booker – Pants On Fire

While the Telegraph titles continue to haemorrhage hacks at an alarming rate – well, alarming for those still clinging on to their seats within the Victoria bunker – one Sunday fixture remains constant. Yes, serial fraud Christopher Booker churns out the dubiously sourced garbage on cue, every week. Every week he tries to slip in more of those whoppers. And every week he gets caught out.
Decades of service. And of getting it wrong

Today’s diatribe, “Millions for the Met Office to carry on getting it wrong”, is no exception. Here, the great man brings his superior insights to bear on the subjects of weather forecasting and climate change, where he stands alone as the one who is telling the right tale, fighting against the dastardly Met Office and all those scientists, who cannot possibly hope to match his level of awareness.

In 2007, its computer predicted that this would be the ‘warmest year ever’, just before global temperatures temporarily plummeted by 0.7C, equal to their entire net rise in the 20th century” he tells. Global temperatures in 2007 actually rose slightly; the following year they fell, but by little more than 0.1C. Still, the odd transcription error, and all that. And, as the man said, there’s more.
From 2008 to 2010 the models consistently predicted ‘warmer than average’ winters and ‘hotter and drier summers’: three years when much of the northern hemisphere endured record winter cold and snow”. Wrong. No absolute predictions were made. Saying there is a greater chance of one weather outcome over another is something different entirely. And there was no “record winter cold and snow”.

The coldest recent spell – December 2010 – was not part of a record coldest winter. That winter did not come close to 1978/9, which in turn was not as severe as 1962/3 or 1946/7. But have another go: “temperatures have now not risen for 18 years, and not one has got near 1998’s record as the ‘hottest ever’”. So how does he explain 2005, 2007, and 2010, which were all warmer?
Booker then segues effortlessly into energy policy: “those same computer models are the basis ... for Britain’s crazy national energy policy” he asserts. But there will be enough in reserve to stop the light going out: “enough is already in place to give it a ‘hidden reserve’ of another 7GW, equivalent to four large nuclear reactors”. The largest single reactor in the UK is Sizewell B – 1.2GW.

Sums clearly do not come easily to Booker. But he does know that, by 2030, “we will have shut down all our gas and coal-fired power stations”. That would be news to all those planning and building new gas-fired ones. The thought enters that Booker is recycling so much discredited rubbish that the Tel may have secured his services on the cheap – hence his remaining when so many others have been binned.

The level of accuracy is at least consistent – rather too low to be credible.

1 comment:

rob said...

Booker becomes a cropper as not knowing his (green) onions?