Dan Hodges Confuses Himself

[Update at end of post]

He’s suffered for his art, and now it’s your turn: floor-crosser extraordinaire Dan Hodges has demonstrated via the platform afforded to him at the bear pit that is Telegraph blogs, and the occasional excursion on to Twitter, that Scotland’s referendum campaign has got the better of him. Dan may be saying no, or even yes, while also saying it could be a maybe.

Yes! He's a No! Or maybe not ...

And whatever the outcome, the Labour Party has automatically done the wrong thing, whatever that thing is. This diverts attention from his own lack of research, such as the assertion “The loss of the 40 Scottish Labour MPs would set an almost insurmountable barrier to an outright Labour parliamentary majority”. Ho yus? It wouldn’t have changed the result in 2005 (for instance).

Hodges’ hatred of Pa Broon and Mil The Younger knows no bounds; he calls them “The Labour Party’s nemeses” (probably not, Dan). But, even though he hated Labour, the No camp would prevail: “Despite everything, we are another day closer to the Scottish people voting No ... People commenting on the 17% ‘undecideds’ in the ICM poll. They’re not undecideds. They’re No voters”.

He voiced his opinion unequivocally at Tel blogs: “I predict that the margin of victory for the No camp will be larger than many people suspect”. So that’s that, is it? Er, no it isn’t: “Meanwhile, the bookies have started paying out on a ‘No’ vote. It’s too close to call. It really is. Honestly”. And the latter comment was made the day before the former.

You can forget Pa Broon’s speech, which did not impress Hodges one bit, or even as much as move him: “Gordon gave lots of speeches like that as PM. Didn’t have 95% of the press or 60% of public backing his cause then though”. So never mind all those people out on the streets enthusing about it.

In any case, by yesterday, while Dan was telling the readers at Tel blogs about that wider margin of victory for the No campaign, he was saying otherwise on Twitter: “Whatever your view on tomorrow’s vote, it’s clear that in constitutional terms the best thing would be a ‘Yes’ vote and a clean break”. They’re going to win, then?

The mood of personal confusion was completed by a rank non sequitur, as he tried and failed to demonstrate an Ealing films parallel: “Now Shetland wants to secede from Scotland. This referendum is ending as a cross between Passport to Pimlico and Whiskey Galore”. Very good Dan, Whisky Galore (note correct Scottish spelling) had nothing to do with moves to independence.

Dan Hodges has thoroughly confused himself. One wonders if the readers are, too – if, of course, any of them are still paying attention.

[UPDATE 19 September 1400 hours: true to form, after Labour saved the Union and Young Dave's bacon, Hodges has thrown a mardy strop in their general direction.

"This man wants to be Prime Minister in eight months time. And he clearly hasn’t got a clue in his own mind about what that United Kingdom should actually look like" bawls Dan petulantly.

Then, without bothering to find out what Mil The Younger and his team are thinking, he whines "Labour Party conference starts in less than 48 hours. Is Ed Miliband seriously just going to try and wing it?" Having resigned his party membership during a previous mardy strop, Dan won't be there, of course.

Why bother asking, Dan? You already made your mind up that, whatever Miliband does, it will be a disaster for the country, because you can't have a Mark 2 version of the sainted Tone, and you're going to jump up and down screaming "Look at me Labour people" until you start a froth at the mouth and fall over backwards.

Miliband, with Pa Broon's help, made sure in Scotland. Cameron did not. This is not a difficult proposition to grasp. Unless you're Dan Hodges]