Mail Rogue Poll Claim Busted

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, we are constantly being told, is unfit to govern, and the voters will respond that way. Just look at the opinion polls, we are told. The polls show the Tories with a clear lead, it isn’t changing, the game is up, the 2020 General Election is already decided, and the only variable is who leads the Tories, given that Young Dave has decided he won’t hang around for a third term.

This narrative held firm until last Monday, when an ICM phone poll for the Guardian produced an unexpected result: the Tory vote share had fallen three points to 36%, while that for Labour had increased by four points … to 36%. Suddenly the received wisdom had to be changed, somehow - anyhow. Maybe it would be the same as last year - the over 65s would turn out, younger voters would not, and the Tories would be safe.

Over at the Northcliffe House bunker, though, nothing was taken for granted: the ICM poll had to be rubbished. Daily Mail readers should not have their breakfasts disturbed by such abhorrent thoughts as Labour winning elections. So out came the knocking copy: “Labour surge put down to a 'rogue' poll: Major firm questions its own research after survey suggests party had drawn level with the Conservatives” was the headline.

Do go on. “A major polling firm questioned its own research yesterday after a new survey suggested Labour had drawn level with the Conservatives … in an extraordinary statement, ICM suggested its own poll might have produced ‘rogue’ results … The firm described the poll for the Guardian newspaper, as ‘rather stunning, yet methodologically perturbing’”. See? There’s nothing to worry about, Mail readers.

Well, up to a point: ICM did call the poll “somewhat misleading”, but at least part of this was that the Tories’ vote share had been rounded down from 36.4% and that for Labour rounded up from 35.6%. However, and here we encounter a significantly sized however, the most significant aspect of this poll was the trend, which showed a movement away from the Tories and towards Labour. And it got worse this morning.

The bad news for all those wanting to dismiss the ICM poll as a rogue indication was that a YouGov poll for the Times shows more or less the same thing: here, the Tories are down to 33%, with Labour actually in the lead, with 34%. Worse for The Blue Team is that UKIP, which had seen a decline in its vote share since last year’s General Election, was back up to a respectable 16% - much of which could be at the Tories’ expense.

And it can only get worse: the Tories are, as so often, split down the middle over the EU, and the electorate, as Labour found to its cost in the 1980s, does not like parties that are split. Moreover, the aftermath of the Budget is still working its way through the system, with a potential Tory revolt brewing over the idea that it’s OK to take money off the disabled in order to give the better-off a bit more. It might get worse - a lot worse.

It would be interesting to see the Mail spin that. Which they will. No change there, then.