The time when Rochdale’s still nominally Labour MP Simon Danczuk will learn his fate after his long suspension is fast approaching. That decision has, as far as is known, not yet been made. But what happened in the past few days in his own back yard may have a bearing on Spanker Si’s Labour future, or the lack of it. And on that front, the news has been uniformly grim. Danczuk’s support is ebbing away precipitously.
Worse, what began as background grumbling has now erupted into full-blown revolt, as wards within the Rochdale constituency have formally registered their discontent with their elected Parliamentary representative. Put simply, there have been motions of no confidence tabled, and those motions have been passed. Not only that, sitting councillors have been joining in the process, which is yet worse news for Danczuk.
What this means for Spanker Si and his Labour future can be put very directly.
Zelo Street has learned that three local CLPs voted unanimously to pass no confidence motions in Simon Danczuk. This included councillors.
It has also been put to me that Danczuk has been in contact - whether formal or informal is not known - with Arron Banks, who is launching The Patriotic Alliance. Banks would love to kick off his launch with the capture of an MP.
This last point might explain why Danczuk voted against a Labour amendment to the Brexit debate in the Commons.
Danczuk’s last chance of heading off a no confidence motion from the full Constituency Labour Party would be if the Rochdale CLP did not vote the same way as those three local branches.
I am told that faithful Danczuk ally Richard Farnell, leader of Rochdale Council, has instructed his pals to turn up at the Rochdale CLP meeting and force a delay - or block the No Confidence vote at the full CLP.
Were a No Confidence motion to get onto the agenda for the full CLP, as soon as that agenda went out to all delegate members, the news of the No Confidence motion would get out within hours.
That information would soon reach the national party, and most likely ahead of Danczuk’s hearing which will result in the decision whether to expel him.
That is how serious the situation is for Simon Danczuk right now. If Farnell and his pals fail, and a No Confidence motion gets onto the full CLP agenda, the news will leak and he will be the proverbial Dead Man Walking.
The only thing saving Spanker Si in the short term is that he would remain as Rochdale’s MP, as even expulsion from the party does not force an MP to resign their seat. But for all other intents and purposes, Simon Danczuk is looking an embattled and beleaguered man. The only surprise to many in Rochdale is that he is still standing.