HS2 – Gilligan Is Still A Disgrace

[Update at end of post]

Not content with peddling invented scare stories about high speeds causing trains to be derailed by mysterious waveforms, and the one about Coventry and Wolverhampton being fourteen miles further apart than they actually are, the Telegraph’s Andrew Gilligan has today reinforced his reputation for being at the acme of dodgy journalism in another attack on the HS2 project.

What some hacks don't want you to see

“Benefits of HS2 were exaggerated, secret report reveals” is the title, and it will be no surprise to seasoned Gilligan watchers to know that the report concerned is not a secret, and it makes no comment whatsoever about the benefits of HS2. You can read the report, “Productive use of travel time and the valuation of travel time savings for business travellers” HERE [.pdf].

The report is indeed critical of disregarding the use of rail travel for productive purposes, but what it then does is make this suggestion: “we would recommend that the current approach be replaced with a process based on estimated actual productivity gains for Employers (which are now much less than 100%) and actual welfare benefits to travelling Employees”.

So what is being recommended is further research to refine the models used to produce Benefit/Cost Analyses (BCRs) for future rail projects. No reference is made to any one project. This, though, does not deter Gilligan, who likes to call “liar” at his opponents at every opportunity, but finds no problem in telling the odd whopper himself, such as his latest on the HS2 business case.

The BCR for the initial London to West Midlands phase of the project, he asserts, has previously been claimed to be 2.9, but in 2011 this figure was just 2.0. The previous highest BCR was always for the Y network, and the average for this in 2011 was 2.6. The recently revised figures show the Y network – and that’s what the Government has approved – averaging a BCR of 2.15.

Moreover, the conservative nature of the methodology used can be seen when looking at the last major rail project to be completed, the Jubilee Line extension. This had a projected BCR of 0.95, meaning it was not worth proceeding. After completion, an “outturn BCR” was calculated, and despite significant cost overruns, came out at 1.75. The benefit of the project had been massively underestimated.

And the BCR for HS2 does not include all those lorry movements taken off the road network by increased freight capacity on existing routes. So there may be other benefits from the scheme. Plus the report that Gilligan references has been in the public domain for two months and is not new news. His allegations of a DfT “cover-up” come with no supporting evidence.

Andrew Gilligan is still an absolute disgrace to his profession. No change there, then.

[UPDATE 11 June 1030 hours: just to highlight the cumulative effect of misinformation, Tim Montgomerie has put on his prediction hat over at ConHome and declared that HS2 "will never happen". This is his "firm prediction". Sadly, two of his reasons are in the significantly shaky category.

He tells that "costs of these projects nearly always run out of control", which they do not. The earlier HS1 project, formerly the more prosaically named Channel Tunnel Rail Link, was delivered on time and under budget. New build - rail or road - gives far more certainty over cost control. Where the difficulties come is with upgrades of existing rail lines or roads.

Then he homes in on the Gilligan article yesterday, where he cites "a Department of Transport analysis into HS2's benefits", which was "suppressed". The report which Gilligan cites was not an analysis into HS2's benefits. It was not an analysis of any project. It did not mention HS2 once. It was taking survey results and concluding that the model used to perform BCRs should be refined further to take on board the survey findings.

Monty is widely quoted well beyond ConHome, but on this occasion he has not even bothered to read what Andrew Gilligan actually wrote, slanted as it was in any case. This is not an isolated incident among the punditerati, and it will not do]