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Sunday 19 July 2020

Covid-19 Death Stats “Pause” WORRYING

This Government has not displayed the surest of touches when it comes to presenting any kind of statistical evidence relating to the Coronavirus pandemic. The attempted - and failed - sleight of hand over testing numbers was bad enough, but presentation of the numbers dying with Covid-19 has been of a magnitude worse. Only through the careful analysis of those at the FT have we seen the full picture.
And that full picture suggests that alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and his pals have understated the number of deaths, even after they came clean and included the death numbers “in all settings”. The official death toll stands at over 45,000 - but the actual figure is highly likely to be well over 60,000. So when the DHSC told that it was “pausing” the reporting of deaths, the alarm bells sounded.

The first sign of the latest move came on Friday, as free sheet Metro told readersHealth Secretary Matt Hancock has reportedly called for an urgent review into the way Public Health England (PHE) counts coronavirus deaths. A scientist has realised PHE is ‘over-exaggerating’ the daily coronavirus death toll because it counts people as victims if they die of any cause at any time after testing positive for Covid-19”. There was more.
Dr Yoon Loke, a pharmacologist at the University of East Anglia … wrote … It seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not … Anyone who has tested COVID positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE COVID death figures”. The numbers continued to be reported while the review progressed.

But then came news from the Independent that the Government had gone further: “The UK government has halted the publication of the daily number of coronavirus deaths over concerns that ‘statistical flaws’ might be rendering the data inaccurate … The pause in publication was decided by the Department of Health and Social Care after the health secretary, Matt Hancock, ordered a review into the figures”. That is worrying.
Former Director of Public Health John Ashton was not impressed. “This is sinister. The underreporting far outweighs any over counting”. The problem that Hancock and his boss have is that their record on statistical delivery is not good. On top of that, Hancock has just performed a screeching U-Turn on another front in his information war.

As the Observer has reported today, “The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has bowed to pressure from councils, which demanded full access to the names and data of people in their areas who tested positive for Covid-19, and those with whom they have been in contact, in another major government U-turn”. What better way to have the electorate looking over there than to claim that headline data is The One Wot Done It.
Bozo and his pals get to blame someone else (again), they distract from Hancock U-Turning, and the appalling death toll from Covid-19 infections is miraculously reduced.

Then we are told it will all be over by Christmas. But which year is not told.
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18 comments:

Gonzoland said...

If you think that this year exceeds all previous Tory clusterfucks, wait until next year. COVID-19 + BORID-2021

Anonymous said...

Goebbels had NOTHING on these gimps.

Anonymous said...

Actually is was the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine that revealed the deaths from the virus were being over reported. Puzzled by the way that Covid death figures in England continued to pour in, while they had all but ceased in Scotland, they looked at the figures from Public Health England. They found,

"It seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still aare still alive or not.
PHE does not appear to consider how long ago the Covid test result was, nor whether the person has been successfully treated in hospital and discharged to the community. Anyone who has tested Covid positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE Covid death figures.
By this PHE definition, no one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but been successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a Covid death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later."

The government therefore is right to stop putting out such nonsense.
The virus has run out of steam, it is no longer a death sentence and the continuing lockdown and muzzling is political in nature. Politicians on the right scared to set us free, on the left loving the ability to control people's lives.

Cower at home if you are still scared, but don't restrict others freedoms.

Anonymous said...

@ 12:59.

Typical sophist bullshit.

Your "freedom" is the "freedom" to infect others during a deadly pandemic.

Excess deaths due to some other things says pillock said...

@12:59 "By this PHE definition, no one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness." plus dangerous BS.
Dear Anonymous, You have failed to reach a satisfactory level in English language comprehension and your opinion about the virus is at the level of a semi-literate Trump supporter.

Anonymous said...

Fuck off back under your bridge, twat.

Anonymous said...

What is "freedom" if it's not freedom to infect others?

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:59... 'The virus has run out of steam' - clearly not worldwide.

'it is no longer a death sentence' - treatment has improved but it has still killed 600,000+ worldwide. Plus a percentage of survivors are likely to have long-term complications.

'continuing lockdown and muzzling is political in nature.' - muzzling? Do you mean facemasks? Facemasks that have been worn for decades by builders, asbestos removal guys, people in polluted areas of Asia, semiconductor fab workers, clean room assembly engineers, many workers in biotech, some in the food industry, painters, model-kit builders and so on? Why has this become such an issue now with the same people who constantly play down this virus?

'Cower at home if you are still scared, but don't restrict others freedoms.' - Ahhh. Is the herd immunity argument with added shame. Quick question - name one disease that we've successfully wiped out via herd immunity that doesn't involve a) Mass vaccinations or b) Immunity developing over centuries? Last time I checked flu is still with us & herpes & measles & pneumonia and HIV. You will also note those adverts on TV asking for help for the African kids stuck with dirty drinking water. Those kids should have the strongest immune systems ever if quick herd immunity was a thing but... they don't.


Anonymous said...

I direct anyone looking for some clarity on this to Kings College London's Covid Symptom Study, it shows new infections have plateaued for some days at around 2100 a day while deaths have fallen considerably even if we believe the figures from PHE! Deaths are NOT being under reported and the correct figures are out there if one looks in the right place.

The government seems to have been cowered by fear of this supposed second spike, which will happen because of increased testing and people not observing even the eased restrictions. But it will be a mere blip and not a spike and deaths will not increase proportionally, the virus is losing its potency and it will be all over by Christmas, the virus will no longer be a killer.

The current muzzling and social distancing is merely a placatory political gesture and has no real scientific basis and though it reassures the timid it puts unnecessary restrictions on our liberty and freedoms. Will we ever be allowed to have them back?

grim northerner said...

Put your mask back on.

Anonymous said...

Excess deaths due to some other things says pillock said...
@12:59 "By this PHE definition, no one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness." plus dangerous BS.
Dear Anonymous, You have failed to reach a satisfactory level in English language comprehension and your opinion about the virus is at the level of a semi-literate Trump supporter.

19 July 2020 at 14:19

If you actually read the post correctly you will see that far from being the words of "Anonymous" they quote directly from the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine's own statement. Unlike you they really are scientists of some standing. I suggest you go to www.CEBM.net and vent your sputum there. Their political affiliations would hardly matter.

My reading is that this is probably as good as it gets and we should all be allowed to get with our lives without hindrance.

Anonymous said...

"The current muzzling and social distancing is merely a placatory political gesture and has no real scientific basis".

Of course it fucking is; Johnson can do nothing else except make empty political gestures. Every step of the way he has resisted the science while falsely implying the opposite. A scientific hypothesis on the basis of empirical evidence would suggest that measures need to be much more stringent and combined with an effective tracking system.

Enjoy your freedumb. Slave owning Patrick Henry did not say 'Give me freedom and give me death'. Cunt.

David said...

@anon 14:52
"Plus a percentage of survivors are likely to have long-term complications."

And wearing face masks will help them in what way?

Excess deaths due to some other things says pillock said...

@17:02
It's your interpretation of the statement that is at fault.

Sue Marsh said...

To the total plum-muffins on here who think the virus has "run out of steam" you're literally taking centuries of stupid, adding new science on top and STILL being as stupid as 16th century plague victims. Bravo.
Even monkeys learn, but libertarian trolls, not so much it seems.

Anonymous said...

Even the plague ran out of steam, when did you last catch a dose?

Anonymous said...

Latest score England 6 Rest of UK 0, ran out of steam or stopped for a "blow up"?

N said...

Do you know why that was, Anonymous 15:12? I'll give you a clue: human involvement was present.