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Sunday 28 February 2010

The Lead Narrows – 3

Full disclosure: when I began this series of posts, I wasn’t privy to any opinion poll data, or to the workings of any newspaper. So there was no inside information to inform my decision.

So why focus on this subject? Well, today’s Murdoch Sunday Times has the answer for all to see: Young Dave’s poll lead has narrowed to a mere two points, with Labour showing in the mid 30s, a level that would have been thought impossible towards the end of last year.

There could of course be variations in marginal seats, where Michael Ashcroft’s largesse is being freely sprayed around, but if the poll percentages were evenly distributed, Labour would be the largest party, and by over fifty seats – so Pa Broon would remain in 10 Downing Street, and the suitably disgruntled Men In Suits would be coming to give Young Dave the bad news.

Moreover, the impression is given that some in the media are becoming just that little bit bolder in questioning the Tories: on this morning’s Andy Marr Show, the host gave the Rt Hon Gideon George Oliver Osborne, heir to the Seventeenth Baronet, quite a hard time, and quizzed the thoroughly dislikeable Shadow Chancellor persistently on the Ashcroft Question.

Osborne, for his part, kept on about “Change”, and there may lie the problem for the Tories: many voters know that things are bad, but if they’re in work, and have had the benefit of low mortgage rates, someone coming along wanting to introduce “Change” might not seem so attractive.

But Pa Broon being plodding and reassuring just might.

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