Hiving Off, Privatising, or Asset Sale?

Back in the days of Sailor Heath’s early 70s Government, a state owned asset was sold, that being the Carlisle brewery, which had been nationalised during the Great War. At the time, the future Tory mood music was not yet in place, and the sale was described as “hiving off”. There was remarkably little fanfare or enthusiasm, which may seem strange, as the private sector is the obvious place for such an industry.

Things were rather different in the Thatcher years, certainly once the Tories had got themselves re-elected: a whole raft of state owned industries were sold, and contrary to some views, they weren’t all basket cases. BT wasn’t. The gas and electricity companies either weren’t, or need not have been. And the TSB wasn’t, and it’s possible it wasn’t HMG’s to sell – but what the heck? Off they all went into private hands, for one off payments, the shares often priced, shall we say, to go.

But what goes around, comes around: Pa Broon announces a sell off and the response seems to have gone back to the early 70s, and perhaps beyond: what was enthusiastically applauded in the Thatcher years is now criticised. With one part of that criticism I agree: it’s not good to sell off an asset at what may be the bottom of the market.

Perhaps beggars cannot be choosers. We will see.

Nobody’s House Journal

Some time ago, Alastair Campbell and his pals at Team Blair were disabused of any thought that the Guardian might give them an easy ride (and Big Al is not happy with the meeja in general right now), so you might think that the lesson would not need re-learning.

But the re-learning is happening over at Tory Party HQ, with Saturday’s Guardian being a superb example of independent spirit: on the front page there is a less than helpful article suggesting that the Rt Hon Gideon George Oliver Osborne, heir to the seventeenth Baronet, “mis-summed” in his calculations. And it’s not a minor error: this one is to do with the raising of the pension age. And it’s three billion quid.

Then, in the Observer today, Toby Helm (who’s getting good at this kind of thing) has given the Tories both barrels on the Michal Kaminsky business. Helm has also co-authored another Observer piece, this one on the more general subject of the Tories’ alliances in the European Parliament.

The conclusion to be drawn is straightforward: anyone who thinks that the Guardian is a puppet of one or other political party is not dealing from a full deck.

The Republican Wrong – Now They’re Angry

Norway. All those fjords. Cold in winter. Peaceable folk. So much so that they award the Nobel Peace Prize. And this year, they managed to turn the award into one heck of a grenade, which has gone off all over the commentariat of US politics, because the recipient is Barack Obama.

Not all liberal leaning folks are supportive of the award: the Guardian’s Michael White, not known for reactionary thought, isn’t impressed. It’s an interesting line he takes, but it should be borne in mind that the award is not necessarily for achievement of peace, but also for aspiration and approach. Obama’s approach to areas such as nuclear proliferation, the Palestinian problem, and Iran has worked in his favour.

But it’s the right wing of US politics where the real unhappiness and dissatisfaction is showing itself. The deeply unpleasant Rush Limbaugh has been, well, deeply unpleasant about the award. Other conservative commentators have been dismissive. And, just to show that they’re up for a fight, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have accused the Republicans of siding with terrorists, as the GOP and its supporters have come out against the award. So it’s warming up nicely.

I commend Sam Stein’s post to anyone who wants to get a handle on this story. And yes, I’ll have another look later.

[UPDATE: John McCain has responded in a measured and positive way to the award. So that’s him ostracised by the GOP then]

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier ... Politician

Why should anyone be surprised? Hardly had he stepped down as head of the Army, in which capacity he was persistently criticising the Government, than General Richard “Morny” Dannatt has joined Young Dave’s chaps as an advisor. Denials all round.

It’s an assumption that some make, and maybe make wrongly, that the Army top brass are closet Tories. But in this case, given the apparently indecent haste with which Dannatt has joined the Tory cause, the assumption looks to be spot on.

Will it make any difference to the conflict in Afghanistan? Probably not in any significant measure. As with Iraq, the USA is taking the lead in the number of troops they are putting “into theatre”. The UK’s role is to some extent merely fitting in to the overall plan.

Will Dannatt’s presence make our troops better equipped and otherwise resourced? That rather depends on whether all the stories of poor equipment are true, and whether the Tory idea of cutting the Ministry of Defence by 25% - but maintaining the troop levels – will work.

Cameron’s talk of increasing those levels, and then bringing the troops home (in yesterday’s speech to the party faithful) isn’t a good sign: there are centuries of evidence of what leaving the Afghans to their own devices means. Whether the Afghan Army is trained well, badly, or indifferently, they and their Government (whatever form it takes) will, after we have gone, choose its own direction.

That direction may not leave us best pleased. Dannatt’s tactics will not matter.

What’s Up, Doc?

So the man who would be the Good Doctor, the one who prescribes the medicine for the British people and their country, has spoken. Young Dave’s speech – given a suitably rapturous reception by the Tory faithful – told us what a steep climb he foresaw, and contained lots of the usual rhetoric. But it is what it didn’t contain that is significant.

In a speech that lasted for the best part of an hour, there was no mention of banks, bonuses, the banking system – or markets. Given the amount of time and energy Pa Broon and his cabinet have had to expend on those areas in a period of just over a year, and the significance they have to the wellbeing of the UK, that’s an omission of non trivial size.

He also laid into Labour over poverty, although the Tories will not be repealing the Minimum Wage, which may just have helped hundreds of thousands of the least well off – and which his party opposed consistently. Neither will he cut the Sure Start programme. Or the independence of the Bank of England. Or the ability of same sex couples to enter into Civil Partnerships, an area in which Cameron – who resisted the repeal of Section 28 – has managed to finesse expertly, exemplified by his good wishes to Alan Duncan on his Civil Partnership, but his lack of appearance at the ceremony.

So we know that Young Dave is a shrewd politician, but not how he would face a major crisis, such as that which so nearly brought down more than one of the big banks. Nor do we know how a Tory Government will approach the economy – and, after all, as Bill Clinton’s team pointed out during his 1992 Presidential campaign, “it’s the economy, stupid”. Will they move to cut spending and induce a slump along the lines of the early 80s – or 1937 USA? Are they pragmatists merely talking up the challenge, only to take a more nuanced line after getting elected, or are they really going to slash and burn?

We would be better served by knowing before the General Election. But, chances are, we won’t know until he’s in Downing Street. Bit late then.

The Republican Wrong – They’ll Hate This

Out there on the right of the US political spectrum, there are a lot of folks who have one belief in common, and that is their Christian faith. And when you really believe what the Bible teaches, then you have a problem with homosexuality. Hence the potentially devastating effect on the Anglican communion of Gene Robinson being ordained a bishop: Robinson was not celibate and is gay.

So those on the right are not going to be pleased at the news that Barack Obama plans to nominate an openly gay man to be US Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa. And, so what? David Huebner wouldn’t be the first openly gay Ambassador, and if he’s the best candidate, it should be no big deal – plus it demonstrates an acknowledgement of, and commitment to, diversity and equality.

That isn’t how the right is going to see it. Not when one of their most infamous exponents of dirty tricks, Floyd Brown, the man behind the TV adverts that did for Michael Dukakis, is launching a campaign to impeach Obama. What for? He’ll no doubt make something up later. Airtime on Fox News Channel (fair and balanced my arse) will follow.

The Republican Wrong – Time Travel

So Chicago failed to get the 2016 Olympics. Get over it? Not, it seems, just yet. There has been a variety of fallout: the right have been applauding – yes, applauding a failure of the USA – merely because the issue has been associated with Barack Obama, who they think is a socialist, or even a communist – these being more “acceptable” characterisations than admitting that they have a problem with an African-American in the White House.

But, bless him, the biscuit taking prize has to go to Glenn Beck, star of Fox News Channel (fair and balanced my arse) who argued that the Olympics would lose the USA money and so weren’t worth having. Problem was, Beck’s example was Vancouver, and he opined that the city had lost a billion dollars (whether US or Canadian ones, he didn’t say) on the Olympics.

Unless Beck has access to a time machine, this is a difficult one to stand up: Vancouver does not host the Winter Olympics and Paralympics until next year.

Some Of Us Are In This Together

Yesterday was the Conference turn of the Rt Hon Gideon George Oliver Osborne, heir to the seventeenth Baronet, and he told his audience repeatedly that “we are all in this together”. Except, of course, some of us are, and will be, but George and the other chaps will not.

But, so what? Why don’t I treat the bloke purely on his merits? Very good point – but the attempts to tell everyone that Osborne is just an ordinary kind of guy, and that it was all down to his dad making some money out of wallpaper, come from the party itself. I have no problem with his being the heir to an hereditary Baronetcy: it’s not me that is trying to sweep his past under the carpet.

So what kind of vision is George giving us? My first reaction was that he was trying to out-tough what had been announced the previous day by Alistair Darling, a sort of “your tough talk, and I’ll raise you another notch or two” poker game. Any cuts that stop measures intended to create jobs, or at least get young people into work, may be counter productive, so I hope the Tories have done their sums.

And, as Stephanie Flanders has posted yesterday, the numbers announced so far don’t give the whole picture: the inference of her analysis was that there will have to be more cutting and/or saving if a future Tory Government is to make its numbers add up.

Problem is, the more you reveal, the more ammunition you give to your opposition. This was the flaw in the late John Smith’s 1992 “shadow budget”, and it was this that lost Labour the General Election (forget Neil Kinnock’s Sheffield speech, or Sun front pages).

Like his boss Young Dave, Osborne is not daft. So, as the Tories are becoming fond of saying, it’ll be one policy at a time, thanks very much.

[UPDATE: Steve Bell has given his view on the Osborne speech here]

The Last Day Out of Summer

It’s fun for families, satisfying for anoraks, and it’s inexpensive. The Wirral Bus and Tram Show comes round every year, at the start of October, bringing thousands of punters into Birkenhead for a nostalgic day out. This year, the weather had to have its ninepence worth – showers every so often until the afternoon – but an area of Merseyside which is probably grim and deserted through the winter was still busy.

The local transport museum benefited from being gifted, more or less, two trams built in Hong Kong, to the same spec as the former enclave’s “proper” fleet. These were joined on Sunday by cars from Lisbon and Wallasey. Heritage buses offered free rides. I encountered visitors from the south east sampling the trams, happily paying the one pound return fare.

That museum is a service provided through Government support. In the recent past, as monetary push has come to shove, such facilities across the Wirral have been under threat. Cutting such services would no doubt save from one budget, but then, the punters would not come if there were no Show. Moreover, the tramway runs throughout the summer months, and cuts there would mean even less punters coming.

Budget cutting is never as simple as some would believe.

Pre-Emptive Strike

The Party Conference season continues: this week is the Tories’ turn, and central Manchester has been suitably disrupted as a result. The area around Manchester Central (formerly G-Mex, originally Manchester Central) has been made one large secure zone, and mere mortals are being kept away.

So you might think that this week’s news headlines would be made by the Tories, but that idea was punctured yesterday afternoon by a call from Chancellor Alistair Darling for pay restraint, which would involve public sector workers on the kind of pay scales where there is generally more disposable income to hand.

So, was Darling’s timing deliberate? Yes, it was.

Why did he do it? Because he can.

So, just as the Rt Hon Gideon George Oliver Osborne, heir to the seventeenth Baronet, was making his bid for the next morning’s headlines with a proposal which may create more jobs, Darling pitched his intervention. There’s no rule that says you can’t go mischief making during opponents’ conferences, but it is generally not done. Why do it now? Any opportunity has to be taken by a party behind in the polls, and with a desire to keep hold of power.

The timing may indicate the return of Alastair Campbell – though probably not – or may have been orchestrated by Baron Mandelson of Indeterminate Guacamole. No Labour source will be telling: best keep the Tories guessing. Moreover, the workers affected by the call for restraint know full well that, even with a change in governing party next year, they’ll do no better.

Interestingly enough, as the Beeb’s Stephanie Flanders has pointed out this morning, the measure with the most potential to reduce Government spending was not Darling’s pay restraint, but Osborne’s upcoming commitment to raise the state pension age by a year. But it’s the effect of a governing party chucking the odd grenade into the room that can distract the media.

Especially if the contents of the grenade are previously unknown.

You Say You Want A Referendum (4)

A week, it has been said many times, is a long time in Politics, and the saying has been proved true over the last few days on the twin subjects of Europe and Referenda. Following the Irish Yes vote on the Lisbon Treaty, the Poles are showing signs of ratification, and the Czechs, whose President, Vaclav Klaus, got a personal letter from Young Dave recently, look to be also falling into line.

So, Dave, what’s a chap to do? After all, there he was promising a referendum, but only if Lisbon had not been ratified by all the EU member states. And now it seems that the Tory leadership has bowed to the inevitable. But London’s mayor, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, is suggesting that the electorate could still be “consulted”, and the Tories are making noises about “repatriating powers”.

As ever with the Tories and Europe, it’s a potentially explosive subject for the leadership. Cameron has been slagging off the EU for some time now, and this has had one effect – to raise expectations of not just a Referendum, but of the possibility of withdrawal. Now he has to continue to talk tough, but keep within the European mainstream.

However, the approach of “consultation” over “repatriating powers” has one potential snag: if there is to be any kind of vote, then there must be a prior campaign for or against the measures proposed. And any campaign will bring into the public domain something that has so far been missing from the Europe debate: information.

Once the Lisbon Treaty starts being discussed and debated on a factual basis, rather than being treated as a series of scare stories and screaming denunciations, the electorate might not remain so hostile. The same goes for the EU as a whole, and it’s interesting that the thoughtful Nosemonkey’s EUtopia blog has suggested that the Eurosceptic cause is actually damaged by the twin pincers of wild denunciation and proper information.

So, Dave, bring on your campaign. Let’s debate and discuss the issues, and do it through being properly informed.

Hunt the Policy

Who is the Shadow Culture Secretary? As Michael Caine might have said, not a lot of people know that. But they should: in a future Tory Government, the holder of this cabinet portfolio will oversee the BBC’s next licence fee settlement in 2012. The name in the frame right now is Jeremy Hunt.

And Jezza is in remarkably coincident harmony with James Murdoch, who has been Beeb bashing recently, as I observed. In a Guardian interview (the full version, including the hint that the Beeb could become a "threat to democracy", is in the printed edition), he talks of the number of Beeb executives earning more than the Prime Minister, and infers that the next licence fee settlement, if the Tories are in power, may be a time to enforce pay cuts on the Corporation. Just how much that kind of action might save, versus the damage done as those who can move elsewhere, is not discussed.

But what Hunt does quote are the numbers: the combined advertising revenue, we are told, of all commercial broadcasters in the UK is less than the BBC’s income. It sounds like an open and shut case. Until, that is, you realise that there are other sources of income available to those players in the commercial market: Sky, mainly through subscriptions, has a total income greater than the BBC.

And that makes the scene rather different: as I said before, Murdoch Junior was effectively urging that his most significant competitor be hobbled (not forgetting that Sky already has a significant stake in ITV), while playing the poor underdog.

So who is driving the policy? What is the quid pro quo with the Murdochs? It can’t all be down to telepathy.

Eye Told You So – 3

A warning for clickable link lovers: there aren’t any external ones in this post. To reach the recommended item, you’ll have to actually buy the publication. Old habits may get rarer, but they seemingly never die.

Previously, I’ve considered the hiatus that surrounded the Scottish Justice Secretary following his decision to release the supposed Lockerbie bomber on compassionate grounds. Now, the latest issue of Private Eye has summarised the case, and its “Lockerbie Special” appears on Page 29 of issue 1246.

For all those who still believe that the decision to convict al-Megrahi of the bombing was in any way sound, this should be recommended reading. I commend it to them, and to anyone else with an interest in the case.

Realignment of the Wrong – Revisited

The ruckus following David Miliband’s speech to last week’s Labour conference has carried on, not least because some of the representatives from Young Dave’s new Euro-Pals are to visit the Tory gathering this week in Manchester.

Yesterday, Tory chairman Eric Pickles demanded a retraction from the boy Miliband over the Foreign Secretary’s comments. More significantly for this blog, a regular commented that there was little of what those Stateside call backstory available on the issue, so I’ve had a little delve through the media archives.

Mention of the Latvian party first surfaced back in June when the Tories were putting together their new grouping in the European Parliament. At the time, they had four seats in the EP, but as there is only one of them in the European Conservatives and Reformers’ grouping, it must be assumed that the others lost their seats in the latest Euro-Elections.

However, the involvement of Fat Eric has come rather later: the comments upon which Miliband has seized come from an exchange on the Today programme on the 22nd of last month, where the question of Tory alliances in Europe was broached by the Lib Dems’ Chris Huhne.

The significant dissent from Pickles’ attempt to brush off Huhne’s criticism then came the following Monday in a comment piece for the Guardian by Efraim Zuroff, who is no mere pundit: he is the chief Nazi hunter for the Simon Wiesenthal Center, and a Holocaust historian. Zuroff is dismissive of the Tory view of this chapter in European history.

Given the authority of the source, it’s not surprising that Miliband has refused to back down.

When Irish Ayes? – 3

And so it came to pass, and I did post a prior warning: the second Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has yielded not merely a majority Yes vote, but a thumping 67% voted in favour, on a turnout increased from 53% to 58%.

There are no doubt a variety of reasons for the reversal in majority preference: the state of the domestic economy is one, and rebutting the No camp’s claims on neutrality, abortion and taxation another. The third, I am sure, is that there is a dislike in Ireland of others – particularly Brits – showing any kind of interference in their affairs. So the involvement of UKIP will not have gone down well.

What now for the Tory policy on Lisbon? If the Poles and Czechs ratify by the beginning of next year, Young Dave is going to find himself in one of those difficult positions. He won’t be helped by Dan, Dan the Oratory Man claiming that the party is considering offering the electorate a referendum on withdrawal.

As I previously pointed out, that’s something you can do only once.

Too Windy A City?

That came out of the blue, didn’t it? Chicago has gone out in the first round of voting in the competition to be host city for the 2016 Olympics. Barack Obama won’t be happy: he’s given his personal endorsement. And nor will the city’s black and hispanic communities, who might have been able to look forward to sharing in the economic benefits from getting the games.

And, no doubt, the Obama haters will be crowing, well, for a week or two – until they pick up on another stick with which to beat the Prez they can’t bring themselves to accept.

So who’s left? Tokyo, which staged the games back in 1964, Rio de Janeiro, which hasn’t staged them before, and Madrid, which should really have got them in 2012, but for the slip by the man from Greece. I can’t offer an informed opinion on Tokyo or Rio, but Madrid could stage the Olympics tomorrow. And I mean literally tomorrow.

New Airport terminal opened recently, good road network, expanding high speed rail network, new city transport hub right in the middle of town at Puerta del Sol, and the workforce ready and able to do the job.

And now I see Tokyo has also been eliminated, so it’s either Rio or Madrid. Madrid gets windy as well, y’know ...

UPDATE: Yes, Madrid is also too windy for the IOC. It's Rio!

When Irish Ayes? – 2

Yes, today’s the day – not in the UK, but in Ireland. Here, the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is being held, as is required by the Republic’s constitution (that’s the thing we in the UK don’t have, well, not in writing, anyway). The polls suggest that the result will be a Yes vote, with the focus of ratification moving to the Czech Republic and its hesitating President, Vaclav Klaus.

And, as I mentioned a while back, this raises the possibility of the first President of Europe being none other than Tony Blair. I’ll stick the old neck out and make a prediction right now: the Irish don’t take kindly to the Brits sticking their oar into what is a domestic Irish election, and when the results are announced, the interference from folks like Nigel Farage and the UKIP crowd will not have helped their cause. Ditto the efforts of Murdoch the Interfering Foreigner.

Which would mean that all those who hate Blair the most would have spent the past few weeks spraying on their own firework. Serve them right.

Taxing Question

He may be Prime Minister come next May, so I’ve been paying attention to what Young Dave has to say on taxation, being someone who pays taxes. And he’s not impressed with what are termed “high marginal tax rates”, which translates as the move to hit the best off with a 50%, rather than just 40%, income tax rate.

So is he going to state unequivocally that the Tories will abandon the higher rate? Well, yes, but then the assertion has a suitable caveat. According to the Guardian, he’ll bin the 50% rate if it doesn’t raise any extra revenue. But then, any tax that doesn’t raise revenue might as well be scrapped. So why not go that bit further and commit to removing any tax measure that contributes so little that it’s not worth the candle?

Being a freelance worker, I have an acid test for Dave and his chaps: the measure that is called IR35. As I noted a while ago, this has raised a mere fraction of the money it was supposed to, and may even be costing more overall than had it not been enacted in the first place.

So, how about it? Or, perhaps, it will go quiet. Again.

Farewell to Morgan the Leader

There were occasions when Tony Blair came over as so determined to pursue a particular course of action that he appeared inexplicably wilful. The leadership of Labour in Wales was one of those occasions: first he went with the disgraced Ron Davies, then the singularly unsuitable Alun Michael. All the time he appeared to be against the most obvious, and most popular candidate, Rhodri Morgan.

And now Morgan, who has just turned 70, has decided that there will have to be another leader, as he is to step down. His decade in this particular “top job” has attracted neither controversy nor scandal. He has been, and remains, genuinely liked and popular. The only question that, for me, remains unanswered is why Blair was so keen not to have him.

The example he also shows is that of being able to know when to go, to leave when still at the top, and to do so of his own volition.

Parallel Universe

It is as if some in the press pack are reliving an old episode of Star Trek: the impression is given that, this week, there are two Labour Conferences going on, given the wildly different assessments of each speech, depending on which paper you read. Today has brought a superb example of divergence, as Foreign Secretary David Miliband has had his ninepence worth just before the Conference closed.

Let’s see how this played with the Maily Telegraph. Adverse comment about the length of the speech, telling how he went “beyond his brief”, and Pa Broon looking on “stony faced”. Sounds bad. But Toby Helm in the Guardian was in a more favourably disposed universe: the speech he saw was “powerful stuff”, with Miliband “going for the Tories over Europe”, and that Brown “listened intently” and gave his “most genuine smile of the Conference”.

But on one thing both papers are agreed: Miliband put the boot into Tory Chairman Eric Pickles, and a more deserving recipient would be hard to find. Fat Eric has said that the Latvian Waffen SS veterans whose exploits are celebrated by the Fatherland and Freedom Party (one of Young Dave’s new friends in the European Parliament) were merely “following orders”. Aye, and so were all of them, Eric, and we know what some of the Waffen SS got up to.

The Tories aren’t at all happy about the attack, and with good reason: Fat Eric has built part of his reputation on his supposed anti-racism, although the variety deployed in last year’s Crewe and Nantwich by-election was more of a talent for accusing opponents of racism at a time that will do them most damage, and on the most flimsy evidence.

But in any case, if Labour are heading for defeat, why don’t the Tories just smile and ignore the attacks? Ah well. A poll taken after Pa Broon’s speech earlier this week had the Tories down to 37% and Labour up to 30%. That’s a reduction in the Tory lead of more than half, and any number that gets Labour at or over 30% suggests an election resulting in a hung parliament.

Anything hinting that Tory support is at all soft will make them nervous, and will encourage Labour. It will all make for yet more excellent spectator sport.