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Friday, 11 December 2009

The Goose Must Have Been Getting Fat

What’s with all the goose fat? Earlier this week it was piled high at Aldi, and today there it is at Asda. But, after sitting down with the obligatory nice relaxing cuppa, the penny dropped.

Somebody on the telly has been plugging it.

Well, it can’t have been Delia, or the stuff would have sold out before I’d even noticed it. And that much is true, although she’s recommended the stuff for basting the goose before it goes in the oven.

No, the culprit this time is the agreeably upmarket Nigella Lawson, who is majoring on goose fat to help you produce the ultimate roast potatoes. Whether it makes your kitchen sparkling clean, despite all the cooking, is another matter.

Thursday, 10 December 2009

Elocution In Reverse

Over the time he was Prime Minister, much about Tony Blair irritated me: the regular use of “y’know”, the idea that his integrity, like Caesar’s wife, was beyond reproach (every politician tells the odd porkie, even if only by accident), and ultimately his almost messianic belief that the so-called WMDs in Iraq would be found, despite their not existing.

And then there was the pronunciation. Blair attended Fettes College – aka “Eton in a kilt” – but he was leader of Labour, supposedly a party of the ordinary folk. So, consciously or otherwise, his speech became “ordinary”. It might not have registered on most folks’ radar, but it irritated the heck out of me, so much so that I recognise anything similar very readily.

So it was that the alarm bells sounded yesterday while I was watching coverage of the Pre-Budget Report. And it wasn’t anything coming from the Government side, but the response by the Rt Hon Gideon George Oliver Osborne, heir to the Seventeenth Baronet. He was starting to sound like Blair, and less like his old self. Why should that be?

Perhaps the talk from the Labour side about their background is getting to some in the Shadow Cabinet. From Osborne, who, as I said a while back, I found instantly dislikeable, one can understand it. After all, when the accusations of privilege and never having had a “proper” job get thrown, he doesn’t have any means of countering them.

Hopefully the rest of Young Dave’s team will not follow suit: Cameron himself won’t go in for any of that, and one reminder of Tony Blair’s attempt to sound “ordinary” is quite enough.

Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Murdoch Is Served (9)

And so it came to pass that the Commons culture, media and sport Select Committee considered their report on Phonehackgate, which I last looked at back in July. But they are not happy about the evidence given by Rupe’s Troops, and so have requested the presence before their good selves of the twinkle-toed yet domestically combative Rebekah Brooks (née Wade).

Ms Wade, now chief executive of News International, may not make her appearance until the New Year, but appear she will. Meanwhile, expect Tory cheerleaders around the blogosphere to either ignore this, or howl “non story” in response. They have good reason to respond thus: Young Dave’s new spinmeister Andy Coulson was editor of the Screws when the initial hacking story broke.

Moreover, Coulson has recently come out of a wrongful dismissal case brought by a former NotW hack very badly indeed: he’s been identified as part of a bullying culture at the paper. As Nick Davies – himself involved in the phone hacking story – has said in Flat Earth News, “Dog doesn’t eat dog”. So it is no surprise that, apart from the Guardian, other papers have managed to ignore the story.

But that’s no guarantee of continuing silence, and a General Election looms. Young Dave is now locked in to being Murdoch friendly – so he’ll just have to hope that this potential IED doesn’t go off.

Hung Over The Gap

Another day, another poll: this one had Tory, Labour and Lib Dem on 38, 30 and 20, which at least gave “only” 12% for “others”, but otherwise just fuelled talk of a hung Parliament. Why so?

Ah well. It’s all about the gap that an opposition party has to cross if it wants to form any kind of majority – let alone a working one. And over the years that gap has been widening.

Back in 1959, the number of MPs not part of Tory or Labour was just seven. Six of those were Liberals: this was the age when the Parliamentary Liberal Party could indeed be fitted into the back of a taxi. So the scope for a hung Parliament was very narrow: an opposition party merely needed to gain another seven MPs to cross the gap.

It was all rather different in 2005. The Lib Dems, as successors to the 1959 Liberals, now had 62 seats. Moreover, the various Northern Ireland members, 18 of them, mostly did not take the whip of any major party. Then there were nine nationalist MPs from Scotland and Wales, and two Independents. That’s a gap of 91.

So Young Dave and his chaps need to gain enough to wipe out the Labour majority – and then another 90-odd on top of that. Only then will they be in a position to form a majority Government. The only other way is to squeeze the Lib Dems, but the days when the Super Soaraway Currant Bun would routinely field a “Libs In No Seats Shocker” edition during the General Election campaign are over – well, credibility wise, anyway.

And the Tories would prefer any majority to be substantial enough that a few by-election losses would not cause too much concern: many in the party still remember the erosion of John Major’s 21 seat advantage during the 90s.

The Network That Gives 120 Per Cent

There are, across the USA, and even further afield, folks who trust what they are fed by Fox News Channel (fair and balanced my arse). And Fox have been hot on the issue of global warming of late – majoring on anything that undermines the scientific consensus.

Thus it should not be a surprise to see that Fox have published the results from a recent Rasmussen Reports poll on the subject: it backs the generally sceptical mood in the USA right now. Look at the response to question 3, which asks “In order to support their own theories and beliefs about global warming, how likely is it that some scientists have falsified research data?"

The response was as follows:

35% Very Likely
24% Somewhat Likely
21% Not Very Likely
5% Not At All Likely
15% Don’t Know
Total 100%.

This, however, wasn’t enough for Fox. On December 4, Fox And Friends put up a graphic which added the “Very Likely” and “Somewhat Likely” together to make 59%, but then restated the 35% “Very Likely” and even discarded the 15% “Don’t Know”. The upshot was a total percentage of 120.

As the article in the link says, this could be the first example of Climath Change.

Tuesday, 8 December 2009

Greeks Bearing No Gifts

I’ve enjoyed some excellent holidays in Greece. The people are on the whole welcoming and laid back, and it tends to be sunny and warm there. Yes, things don’t always work, and service might not come when you’d like it – or even the next day – but you can’t help liking the country and its people.

But successive Greek Governments have never got on top of the country’s economy. In the days of the Drachma, there was always inflation, and a lot more than in the UK: in 1990 a pound bought about 290 drachmae, by 1992 that had gone up to 340, then in the mid 90s it had gone over 400. By the end of that decade it had reached over 500.

So I did wonder how the country would manage to get its currency in line with the Eurozone, and adopt the Euro. The short answer is that they never really managed it, and thereby hangs the problem. The idea of just marking up prices and then blaming the resulting problems on the Euro failed to address the problem: now their sovereign debt has been downgraded, an event which the Cicero’s Songs blog had considered a while back.

This is, as far as is known, a first for a Eurozone country. And Greece not only has a stubbornly high level of debt, but has not displayed the will to tackle it. How the ECB and other Eurozone countries tackle this one is uncharted territory, as the Beeb’s Stephanie Flanders has shown on her blog.

One to watch.

Monday, 7 December 2009

Common Sense Prevails

As it became clear that Donington Park was never going to be ready to stage a modern day British Grand Prix, there was only one alternative, and that was to return the race to Silverstone. And so it has come to pass: today’s deal should keep F1 at the former wartime airfield for another seventeen years.

Bernie Ecclestone seems at last to be happy; Damon Hill, as head of the BRDC, looks positively ecstatic. After all the smiles, you have to wonder why there was all the manoeuvring in the first place.

And it will be free to view.

Unlucky Seven

Last week there were reports that golfer Tiger Woods had been injured in a road accident. Then it started to escalate: Woods and his wife had been involved in an altercation over his alleged infidelity. Then there were photos and names of supposed mistresses.

Well, today the number of alleged mistresses has reached seven. Woods’ recent appearance before the media to confirm that he had transgressed is starting to look like the ultimate understatement, but I do have a sneaking respect for the bloke: how on earth does he fit them all in?

It brings back memories of JFK and his nickname of Jack The Zipper: the women came and went as in a revolving door, at least three of them on the night of his inauguration (and none of those was his wife).

Will Holly Sampson be the last? It’s all getting rather addictive.

Sunday, 6 December 2009

An Inverted Class Warrior

First things first: a confession that I don’t watch every politics oriented item on TV. Hence my having something better to do than take in today’s Beeb One Politics Show. So I initially missed Young Dave getting jolly miffed about Pa Broon’s remark during last week’s PMQs about Tory policies being dreamed up “on the playing fields of Eton”. Yes, Dave’s jolly angry about this, and has left everyone in no doubt that it’s “Class War” – and that sort of thing doesn’t work (allegedly).

So who is making all the fuss about the remark? Had it been Big Al, or Baron Mandelson of Indeterminate Guacamole, then the “Class War” assertion would have been credible. But for Cameron to major on it is not: moreover, such an approach fails to grasp the real purpose of Brown’s remark, which was to get at Zac Goldsmith, advisor to Young Dave, Tory PPC, and a “non dom” – yes, he’s in line to become an MP, yet does not pay tax in the UK.

This has not stopped the usual cheerleaders from lining up to denounce Brown and stating that “Class War” does not work. Their single by-election sample is Crewe and Nantwich, though factors other than the “Tory Toff” stunt played in favour of Edward Timpson: he was minded personally throughout the campaign (and even on Andrew Marr’s sofa afterwards) by Fat Eric, the Government was for a variety of reasons unpopular at the time, the seat isn’t the working class Labour stronghold that some paint it, and the Labour campaign, as I noted at the time, effectively gave up in the last few days and failed to get their vote out.

I would be more than happy to show any of the Tory cheerleaders round Crewe and Nantwich to demonstrate the area’s uniqueness – and how it is much more of a swing seat than they might think – but somehow know that this is an area that they would rather talk about than visit.

Meanwhile, despite Cameron saying he’s relaxed about having gone to “School” (Old Etonians only recognise the one), the impression is given that he’d rather his opponents talk about something else. So expect them not to.

The Stationary Station Scheme

As I posted recently, CREAM put forward their contribution to the “masterplanning” process at their recent Heritage Centre presentation. This was in advance of meetings and decisions with the new Cheshire East Council in the driving seat, but so far everything has gone quiet. Moreover, my email prompt to one of the councillors hasn’t even been answered, and the next relevant meeting – to which the general public, in contrast to the CREAM presentation, aren’t invited – is next Wednesday.

The silence from Cheshire East, together with the leaked suggestion that the Crewe Gateway scheme (leaving the station in its current location and updating it) did not have a “valid business case”, has caused concern. If the Gateway scheme had not had a sound business case, it would not have been put forward in the first place, and, as nothing of any substance has changed in the meantime, one can only wonder how the new Council has arrived at its conclusion.

That concern was voiced in an article that has appeared in the local press, the main contributor being Labour PPC David Williams. There has been no comment from MP Edward Timpson, but neither has he dissented from Williams’ line. It is certainly strange that Cheshire East Council is apparently still considering the crackpot idea of moving the station out of town, especially given that Network Rail (and it’s their rail network) abandoning the idea, not least because they cannot fund the necessary track and signalling works.

Also, one of the consultants advising Cheshire East tells in its literature of its commitment to “sustainable” solutions, and such an attribute could not be associated with a scheme that forces more punters to get in their cars and drive, just to be able to catch a train. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s meeting at the Alex Stadium: it is to be hoped that the Basford move will be dropped for good, and that the Gateway scheme can proceed.

More news as it appears.

Saturday, 5 December 2009

Your Fifteen Minutes Is Up ... For Now

Who in the blogosphere, I wonder, recognises the name of John Ward? He hadn’t registered on my radar, I confess, until a former work colleague took time out to put me straight. Ward was the first to publish the Pa Broon medication story, and has been running with it for some months. He doesn’t actually blog, but has a website and sends out a regular email post.

Unfortunately, as Ward himself concedes, he clearly believes that Brown is on a particular kind of medication, but has no means of proving it. And, without the proof, his story is going nowhere. Other better known bloggers and pundits are drifting away, and Ward’s use of his newsletter style postings to tell of disputes with neighbours is not helping him.

At least Ward has discovered one thing about the blogosphere: even those bringing the exclusives to the table can drift out of favour. He is also right that there are too many folks chasing cheap popularity and embracing a variety of conspiracy theories along the way. His angle on “serious” journalists getting in on the New Media is, of course, already happening with sites like the Huffington Post, which I check out regularly.

What is happening over in the USA, I reckon, will not take too much prompting to happen here: conspiracy theorists calling their opponents “liars”, along with so much that is blatant party propaganda, will not survive competition with anything half decently presented and properly researched.

At which point John Ward may come right back into favour, so I for one hope that he sticks around.

The Limits of Denial

The debate over man made climate change rumbles on, and with fresh intensity on the approach to the Copenhagen summit. The lobby denying that such change exists has drawn new strength from a recent hacking of emails from the University of East Anglia, although the interpretation of this correspondence is disputed. Moreover, if this University were the sole repository of climate change data, the idea that some of it may have been lost would be genuinely disturbing. But UEA is one of many places studying climate change – so it isn’t.

Nevertheless, the antis have dubbed the product from the hacking “Climategate”, while getting terribly sensitive to the charge of climate change denial. The D word, it is argued, makes them sound like holocaust deniers, while trying to re-categorise themselves as merely “sceptics”. This latter would be fine if they were in “show me” mode, but those who have decided that climate change is some kind of hoax, conspiracy, or cover for more taxation are not. They deny that man made climate change exists, hence the legitimate use of the D word.

The chorus of denial should surprise nobody. Many centuries ago, there were those who denied that the earth was other than flat. In the nineteenth Century, some argued that travelling at over thirty miles an hour would be fatal to humans; Dr Dionysius Lardner was particularly concerned at the effect of the first souls to travel by train through Mr Brunel’s tunnel at Box. Before Charles Darwin, the idea of evolution of species through natural selection would have been considered blasphemy, and in some resistant parts of the world still is.

And so it was with exercise. Nowadays we accept that regular exercise is good for you, but half a century ago this was revolutionary stuff. It was substantially due to pioneering work by Professor Jerry Morris, who has just died at the age of 99, that the link between exercise and a healthy heart was proven. Morris’ studies first covered London’s bus crews, noting that conductors were far less subject to sudden heart attacks. Then he looked at postal workers, seeing that those who delivered the post on foot or by bicycle were healthier than office workers.

After all his research, Morris got outsiders to try and destroy his thesis. They could not. Subsequently the research was published in 1953. This came hard on the heels of the publishing of evidence demonstrating the link between smoking and lung cancer in 1950 by Richard Doll. Both these publications were opposed by interest groups, and were not at fist taken seriously – which brings us back to man made climate change.

We now accept that exercise is good for you, and that smoking causes lung cancer. Hopefully the climate change evidence will also be accepted - before it’s too late.

Thursday, 3 December 2009

The Laws Don’t Work – 7

Another day, another routinely dispiriting confirmation that being “tough on drugs” is not working: today’s Guardian has revealed that the number of cocaine addicts entering treatment is increasing sharply. And the numbers shown in the article are more than likely to be only a small fraction of the total number of those so addicted.

Why should this be? Ah well. There may be occasional headline grabbing drugs busts, but their effect on supply is trivial. The product gets to the market, and, being delivered there by organised criminality, is certainly plentiful, but has been adulterated with a variety of additives to bulk it out. Some of these may be carcinogenic: the drug gets the blame for the cancer, while the real reason gets ignored.

Current policy on drugs reinforces the presence of the criminally inclined in the supply chain, along with the variety of lawlessness that comes from the need to feed habits, debt collection, and turf wars. All could be reduced or even eliminated by ending the present charade and legalising – and regulating – the industry. All would then follow: education and treatment would occur without the threat of criminal sanction.

It would also become easier to make comparisons between drugs as to their relative ability to harm, modify behaviour, and cause dependency. Thus another reinforcement of public education. Only in a rational and unthreatening manner can we all become better informed – and have the ability to make our own choices.

The Republican Wrong – Wrong Again

Routinely at Fox News Channel (fair and balanced my arse) there has been yet another attack on Barack Obama by Glenn Beck. However, Beck’s claim – that less than 10% of Obama’s Cabinet appointees have worked for the private sector – has been comprehensively debunked by PolitiFact. And it begs the question of the accuracy of Beck’s assertions, along with their apparently not being checked prior to broadcast.

Beck, with no apparent sense of irony, has defined private sector experience, partly, as “folks that have done more than write on the chalkboard”, which is the defining activity of his Fox show. Perhaps he will tell of his own entrepreneurship in a future presentation.

At least the verdict of PolitiFact was merely that Beck’s assertion was “untrue”: thus he avoided the most severe assessment – “pants on fire”. Beck has, however, attained a recent entry in this category, as have Rush Limbaugh, Michelle Bachmann, Orly Taitz and (you just knew this was coming) Sarah Palin.

Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Greasy Polls

The Beeb’s poll tracker is now showing one clear message: the much debated Ipsos Mori poll recently was not the only one showing a narrowing in the Tory lead. But, so what? These things show movements to and fro, and a few more weeks down the line, things may be different. This stance, I suspect, is the one being taken by Young Dave and his chaps: they might have less good days, but they’re still nicely in front.

And it’s probably the sensible line to take, as is the Tories’ newly defined stance on the EU. But the cheerleaders in the blogosphere are more easily unnerved, and it’s easy to tell when a less favourable poll comes out – it gets ignored. Conversely, a better than expected poll is greeted by coverage bordering on overkill. The thought that the poll lead might fritter away, as Neil Kinnock’s did back in 1992, is preying on many minds.

Added to this is today’s apparently happy and confident performance by Pa Broon at PMQs, likely to have been bolstered by the return to the top team of Big Al, who is one man who still frightens the Tories – more so than Baron Mandelson of Indeterminate Guacamole. Tory cheerleaders are now whining about Brown’s “playing fields of Eton” jibe and shouting “liar” (unfortunately, much in the blogosphere has difficulty rising above this level) at his rather broad definition of the G20 (is Spain a member or just an attendee?).

On the other hand, the playground smears about Brown’s alleged medication are being shouted all over Tory blogland. I make no complaint about this apparent factual imbalance: it is symptomatic of folks getting – prematurely, I would suggest – nervous and rattled. And, if a mere dip in opinion poll ratings gets folks rattled, what if the lead were to vanish?

One thing is for sure: shouting “liar” and making medication jokes won’t bring it back.

That’ll Cost You, Sport – 8

The attempt by dear old Rupe to make the punters pay for access to news continues, as does the demonisation of aggregators and linkers around the Web. How News International is going to make its content so unique as to make folks willingly pay for it is a mystery: as Nick Davies has explained in Flat Earth News, there is little to differentiate between a variety of presenters of what is in effect the same news.

Murdoch himself has been at the forefront of cutting costs by cutting down on the numbers of journalists. Unless he is going to spend more, in order to give his content a uniqueness and quality not available elsewhere, he’s on a hiding to nothing.

Moreover, the whole idea of simply walling up his empire behind a pay barrier misunderstands the way the Web works. This has been brought home in typically forthright style by Arianna Huffington, in this post. I commend it to anyone not yet persuaded of Murdoch’s folly.

Tuesday, 1 December 2009

Longer Exposure

All the photos from my sojourn in warmer climes have now been selected, edited, uploaded and titled. So, as previously signposted, here are some links for anyone who is interested.

New views of the city of Lisbon have been added; these are marked as “New”, as are additions to the collection on the city’s much photographed trams. A collection of views from the less touristy part of Portugal has been assembled, with images from Braga, the Douro Valley, Évora and Beja. A tour of the National Rail Museum at Entroncamento is there too, as is one of the Algarve.

By all means stop by, browse, and let me know if there are any howlers, or anything I might have missed.

Bring Me Sunlight – 3

Back in October I checked out the particularly eccentric stance of backbench (and, apparently, determined to stay there) MP Douglas Carswell, who sits for the constituency of Harwich and Clacton. The Guardian, being a broad church despite those – on the same part of the political spectrum as Carswell – who like to pretend otherwise, has featured an interview with him in its Environment Blog. Carswell, as I’ve previously mentioned, doesn’t believe in such things as man-made global warming.

And Carswell is refreshingly candid about his recent conversion to climate change scepticism. This, he tells, follows his investigation into the writings of one Ian Plimer, particularly the book Heaven and Earth: Global Warming – The Missing Science. In the Guardian interview, this is the only author and volume he quotes in his defence. But there is a problem with this approach: Plimer and his book have been savaged by the scientific community.

This, however, has not stopped several on the libertarian right from taking Plimer, and those of similar persuasion, as their particular gospel. Meanwhile, this article tells you all you need to know about the critics.

Guilty Until Proven Guilty

Desperate times, desperate measures: the town of Standish, Michigan is down on its luck, so much so that it hopes to improve things by successfully bidding to bring inmates from Guantánamo Bay (aka “Gitmo”) to a nearby, and otherwise disused, facility. Some of the responses have been truly bizarre.

Some assume that the detainees are all terrorists, although no charges have been laid, and no trials started. Others suggest they will break out of the jail and rape their way around the county, although none were detained on those grounds.

The most bizarre assertion of all is that having the detainees in the nearby prison will make the area a terrorist target. And how many terrorist actions have been targeted on Guantánamo? Well, as far as is known, none.

The ultimate solution is, as ever, straightforward: bring forward the evidence, put the detainees on trial, and apply the appropriate sentence to those found guilty. Otherwise set them free: being Muslim with Intent, or Reading the Qur’an with Malice Aforethought, are not indictable offences.

Who Checked The Figures? – 2

Yesterday in the House of Commons, Young Dave did something that Pa Broon does not find easy: he made a public apology. As I posted recently, there was a row of non-trivial size after Dave’s assertions about money going to Muslim schools, and now he was admitting getting some of his facts wrong.

So far, so honest, but we are no nearer to knowing how the leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition got it so wrong. Where did the assertions originate? Who checked both them and the figures? One thing, if previous discussion of the Cameron character is to be believed, we can expect: whoever put this particular “dodgy dossier” before Young Dave will have found out directly what the Tory leader thinks of such service.

Moreover, the source will not be so readily trusted any time soon – that being any time this side of the General Election.