Mark François Prepares To Shaft Himself

With commendably bad timing, on the eve of Rishi Sunak announcing that he has “got Brexit finished”, and has secured amendments to the Northern Ireland Protocol from the EU, up has popped Mark François (note cedilla under the c), head of the Tory ERG, to tell anyone prepared to listen that he and the DUP are most likely not going to agree to it.

This should come as no surprise at all to Zelo Street regulars: I warned only last weekend that Sunak could not do the deal and hold his fractious party together at the same time. François, in an interview with Sophy Ridge on Sky News, has all but confirmed that warning. Here’s what he had to say about the deal, with my fisking added to show where he diverges from reality.

“They [the DUP] made very plain that they would not sign up to anything until they’ve read the legal text [and] we’re in the same position. What MP worth their salt would vote for something without having read it? [Er, you did] So unless that legal text, when we see it, expunges EU law from Northern Ireland [it won’t, and it can’t], I think it’s very unlikely that the DUP will support it”.

Do go on. “In which case the whole process won’t work [why not? The DUP refused to back the Belfast Accords, and they worked]”. Ms Ridge put it to him that the ECJ would have less of a role, with trade being made easier. “Less of a role is not enough. Just putting a couple of intermediate phases in, in a situation where you still end up with the ECJ, is effectively sophistry”.

It’s what you’ll have to accept. Oh, hang on, he’s not finished. “I mean, we’re not stupid”. You don’t say? Then riddle me this: unless you have a hard border on the island of Ireland, you have to accept some EU law, and some role for the ECJ, because the ultimate arbiter of EU law is the ECJ. And a hard border is an unacceptable price to pay for François’ ERG purity test.

Also, he is stymied by the inconvenient fact that he voted for the Brexit deal presented to Parliament by disgraced and now former alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. The Northern Ireland Protocol, which was part of that deal, is what allows some EU law to prevail in Northern Ireland. Did he not read the agreement? Is he not worth his salt?

Worse, Sam Coates pointed out “I’m very struck by ERG Mark Francois to [Sophy Ridge] seizing on James Cleverly saying government will not sign off on NI deal unless they’ve addressed DUP concerns. That’s NOT the government line. They’re pressing ahead without likely agreement … Why did For Sec say this”. Sunak is, ultimately, going to call the ERG’s bluff.

And if Mark François (note cedilla under the c) is the best that the ERG can pony up for the Sunday media round, it very much looks as if Sunak won’t be seriously troubled by the flat earth brigade. The DUP will say NO, slowly, loudly and deliberately whatever happens. But a majority of Northern Irish MLAs backs the Protocol, and will almost certainly back this deal.

So Sunak will already have replacements lined up for ministers who are reported to be on “resignation watch”, such as Steve Baker, recipient of the YBF Golden Dolphin, and Suella Braverman, about whose departure few will care. The only regret will be that it had not happened a lot earlier. François will be harming the career of only one person - that would be himself.

He could stop and think, then read what today’s Observer has told: “Key pro-Brexit Tory MPs suggested on Saturday night they would be prepared to back Rishi Sunak over any ‘sensible’ deal on the Northern Ireland protocol … They said the number of Tories who might vote against the deal, which could be announced to parliament as early as Monday, was likely to be limited to between 20 and 40 hardcore anti-EU MPs”. A split, but manageable.

Labour won’t back the hardliners, and the DUP will be left to continue their impotent ranting. Sunak will get a boost, however temporary, in the opinion polls, and Bozo will be further diminished. The ERG is becoming an irrelevance, just another embarrassing waste of taxpayer funds.

Mark François was for a time, but not for all time. Just rejoice at that news.

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