We’ve had over a week so far of stubbornly cold conditions, which as I pointed out a few days ago, have been caused by a variety of factors which, taken together, mean that the UK has enjoyed the dubious benefit of a northerly or easterly airflow, bringing very cold wind from the Arctic (or Russia) across the country.
The same factors brought the cold spell at the start of the year, too. But all this may be about to change, with the Atlantic jet stream forecast to move over the country (check Friday to Sunday next), and the area of high pressure over Greenland yielding (check T+84), allowing a weather system to approach from the south west.
There is, however, a potential problem here. The change may not last very long, and may feature heavy rain along with not much rise in temperature. And, as the weather system moves north east, the area in front of it will still be full of that cold air, so what falls first will be snow – which may then drift in the wind.
The respite from winter chill may be longer, of course: forecasting the weather in a country that lies between ocean and landmass for more than 24 hours in the future is never going to be a straightforward business. But it is not yet time to wave goodbye to the cold snap.