So while the odious flannelled fool Master Harry Cole, still pretending to be a real journalist as political editor of the Murdoch Sun, and his opposite number Jason Groves at the Daily Mail, moan about how many months any ending of restrictions is going to take, Sam Coates at Sky News has noticed that SAGE’s latest advice is not quite so upbeat.
Dated February 7th, the opening paragraph shows what Cole, Groves and their pals in the press cohort aren’t telling their readers. And it makes for grim reading. “Four scenarios have been modelled that differ in the speed of easing restrictions from current levels to minimal measures. All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths”. That’s in addition to the 130,000 or so deaths we already have.
There is more. “The scale and timing of these resurgences are critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions, including real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and infection … Given this uncertainty, it would be inadvisable to tie changes in policy to dates instead of data”. Easing could happen later. A lot later.
Hence “It would take several weeks after lifting one set of restrictions to determine whether it is safe to take the next step”, and another reminder - “Maintaining baseline measures to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted is almost certain to save many lives and minimise the threat to hospital capacity”. Face coverings. Distancing. Hand washing.
It is possible that vaccination will reduce transmission, as well as preventing anything more than mild symptoms in the vast majority of the population. So in that case, SAGE is being unduly cautious. But being incautious has not served alleged Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and his pals so well up until now. So caution it is going to be.
That means the press needs to get real about timescales, and stop trying to push the Government into moves which could see tens of thousands more needless deaths. Once again, we see the exercise of power without responsibility. And that’s not good enough.
https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/zelostreet8
The tory press (i.e. All of it) doesn't care about human lives.
ReplyDeleteNever has, never will.
Same applies to the tory party, New Labour, and Cleggy LibDems.
It's the main reason Britain has become a far right racist shit hole owned and run by lying spivs in suits.
Interesting that now that they have already killed a load of old tory voters and vaccinated the rest... that they want to open schools and spread covid to the one group that will get the vaccinations last (50 and under) that didn't vote tory last time. Its almost as if they have figured "lets kill Labour voters, because we killed to many tory voters last time".
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Toby "not really a twat, but actually a massive bellend who shits his bed while cry wanking"(1) Young, and all the gimps at spiked, will be crying into their advertising earnings account at the thought of not being able to be anti-lockdown contrarian for cash... Mind you my guess is they will be screaming for more lockdown as soon as the earnings dip because no one is reading their anti-lockdown pages.
(1: I wonder if the freeze peach absolutist will be upset about that bit of free speech; because we all know its true.)
Whilst a recent document, this SPI-M paper from the 7th Feb is out of date. Predictions from all four of these modelled scenarios are critically sensitive to some of the uncertain inputs, principally the ability of vaccines to block transmission and their ability to prevent severe disease. Recent data, reported this week and no doubt available to Ministers and advisors earlier, show the assumptions from the SPI-M paper were very conservative. Chris Whitty presented these studies last night. Vaccines are much better at blocking transmission than assumed, and even with a single dose are extremely effective at preventing severe disease.
ReplyDeleteIn short, the predictions of hospitalisations and deaths forecast in these scenarios are incorrect. That's not to suggest the modelling is poor, it is just that predictions are sensitive to uncertain inputs, and cautious estimates may be wrong.
'June 21st: life back to normal'.
ReplyDeleteYou'd have to be smoking some pretty strong stuff to think that is going to happen. No chance.
Have you been vaccinated. we should be told !
ReplyDeleteI have, and it was not a pleasant 10 days following!
@01:32.
DeleteYes, I've been vaccinated. I was seen at the exact appointment time and back home within fifteen minutes. The clinic was meticulous and spotlessly hygienic. The marvellous NHS.
Never felt the injection and I've had no reaction of any description.
Hope this helps.
I am pleased you did not have my experience of "brain fog" etc etc !
ReplyDeleteAnonymous:
ReplyDeleteI had the AstraZeneca vaccine five weeks ago. After the jab, which was given early and before the appointment time, I had to sit and wait for 15 minutes to see if I would suffer any short-term ill-effects to it.
Only after that was I allowed to drive home.
Of course there may be a different procedure if you are given the Pfizer vaccine