And the combination of spin, sums and spelling has no finer embodiment than the odious flannelled fool Henry Cole, tame gofer to the perpetually thirsty Paul Staines at the Guido Fawkes blog, who, along with his colleagues, has been magnificently creative in creating a list of hopefuls, many of whom never knew that they so much as harboured thoughts of going into politics, even if they do support The Blue Team.
Well, here goes: “Can everyone shut up about Boris kicking himself. Kensington majority = 8,616. Uxbridge majority = 11,216”. You sure about this line, Hen? It seems he is: “Some key facts: Kensington and Chelsea is not a seat. Kensington was redrawn to make it not that safe. Uxbridge has a bigger majority”. Well, Kensington and Chelsea is no longer a Parliamentary seat, you mean - it was abolished in 2010.
However, and here we encounter a significantly sized however, there is not only size of majority, but the proportion of the vote secured by each candidate, and here Master Cole falls down badly. In 2010, John Randall was elected with 48.3% of the popular vote, which is pretty safe, given the number of hopefuls likely to turn up. But Malcolm Rifkind’s vote share in Kensington was 50.1%, and an absolute majority.
Yes, you can quibble about the myriad possibilities of what might happen with a higher turnout, but it’s unlikely to produce a significantly different result. Kensington is the safer seat of the two on those numbers. And I suspect that Bozza would rather have stood there, but he’s made his bed, and all that.